An interactive population-data atlas

Skin Cancer Risk Mosaic

Choose any factor and watch the three modeled population-incidence bars respond.

Population patterns, not individual forecasts.This educational model cannot be extrapolated to any one person.

Build a selected population pattern

Gray tiles are untouched. Explicitly selected factors turn gold.

Live population model

Modeled cumulative incidence

Expected percentage of people in this selected population pattern who develop each cancer during this window.

Melanoma0.69%

Basal cell10.4%

Squamous cell4.0%

Population scenario only—not an individual forecast.

Gray tiles are untouched reference inputs. Gold tiles show factors explicitly selected for this scenario.

How the population model works

Baseline: age-, population-sex-, and race/ethnicity-stratified annual incidence references are accumulated across the selected window with competing mortality.

Regional UV: the selected regional proxy modifies each cancer differently. It is an ecological estimate, not a reconstructed exposure history.

Interactions: correlated pigment traits and mole traits use weighted geometric bundles. Sunburn and cumulative exposure use partial weights where their biology overlaps. Other factors are applied as outcome-specific relative associations.

Evidence limits: melanoma registry baselines are stronger than U.S. BCC and SCC baselines. BCC and SCC are not comprehensively captured by central U.S. cancer registries, so those percentages are more model-dependent.

Coefficients include published associations plus transparent modeling choices. This theoretical synthesis has not been prospectively validated.

Population model only. Explore how selected characteristics are associated with modeled skin-cancer incidence in hypothetical populations. These bars are not an individual risk estimate, diagnosis, screening result, prognosis, or treatment advice, and the model has not been validated to predict any individual. Do not use it to decide whether to seek care or screening. For personal guidance, speak with a qualified clinician. A changing, bleeding, painful, or nonhealing lesion should be examined regardless of any model output.